Posted by Geoff Bishop.
Written by John Speed and Stephen McCarthy.
It is becoming increasingly clear that there is no good Brexit deal for the UK. All deals, ranging from the hardest ‘No Deal’ scenario to the ‘softest’ deal, where the UK leaves the EU but somehow remains a member of the single market and the customs union, make the UK significantly worse off both economically and institutionally.
The May government proposes that Britain should leave both the customs union (CU) and the single market (SM) but has been notoriously vague, or unrealistic, about what this would mean in practice.
So, in February and March the government responded to the calls for greater clarity in what it wants from Brexit. In a series of underwhelming speeches Boris Johnson, Liam Fox and Philip Hammond made contributions which were all met by a collective yawn, even derision, from the media and informed commentators.
Indeed the former head of his Trade Department likened Fox’s policy of leaving the CU to giving up a three-course dinner for a packet of crisps.
Theresa May’s own contributions in February to the Munich Security Conference, calling for close cooperation on a range of defence and security issues, and in her Mansion House speech on 2 March, did at least manage to secure some temporary support from both pro-European and hard Brexit members of her government and party.
But all of these contributions have exposed how leaving the EU and both the SM and the CU will result in the UK not only becoming poorer than it needs to be but also losing influence and sovereignty.
As the details are studied further it is increasingly clear that in numerous areas the UK – if it still wants to trade with the EU, be one of the world’s major financial centres, follow international medical, health and safety standards, combat terrorism (including state-sponsored murder), catch international criminals etc. – will be obliged in practice to follow rules and procedures decided by the EU while being shut out of EU decision-making bodies at all levels.
These different issues have been set out in some well-informed blogs such as:
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Richard Corbett’s blog concerning the ‘comprehensive system of mutual recognition’ of standards envisaged by Mrs May;
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Gijs de Vries’ blog, concerning terrorism, judicial affairs and crime-fighting;
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Lord Hannay’s blog on state aid and competition rules.